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OPEC forecasts fading 2019 demand, notes glut return

July 12, 2018 8:46 AM
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Mubasher: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicted that global demand for its crude will decline next year on slower consumption and higher supplies from rivals, pointing to recurrent market surplus despite its supply cut deal.

Global market would need 32.18 million barrels per day (bpd) from OPEC’s 15 members in the coming year, down by 760,000 bpd from this year, the group stated in its monthly report on Wednesday.

“Following the robust growth seen this year, oil market developments are expected to slightly moderate in 2019, with the world economy and global oil demand forecasts to grow slightly less,” OPEC’s report said.

Brent crude futures hit $80 per barrel (pb) this year for the first time since 2014, on the back of a pact to trim production between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including Russia, and involuntary supply losses.

However, the group and their allies agreed in June to ramp up production, returning to 100% from more than 160% adherence to oil output cuts that started in January 2017, following shortages from Venezuela and elsewhere.

As the resilient pace of demand that helped OPEC to balance the market is set to wane next year, the group expected global crude demand to grow by 1.45 million bpd down from 1.65 million bpd in 2018, while any upside could be met.

“If the world economy performs better than expected, leading to higher growth in crude oil demand, OPEC will continue to have sufficient supply to support oil market stability,” the organisation said.


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